Study: Power supplies set for summer

Study: Power supplies set for summer

Jun 10 - The CNY Business Journal -

NEW YORK - Recent assessments of the Northeast's electric power supply indicate that New York, New England, and Ontario will have sufficient supplies of electricity this summer, under normal summer- time conditions. The Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) reported recently that, even under extreme weather conditions, such as a widespread and prolonged heat wave with high humidity and near- record temperatures, "the implementation of special procedures and programs would keep electricity supplies and demand in balance."

New York State, as a whole, according to the NPCC assessment, should have an adequate supply of electricity, although it said that the state could require significant amounts of electricity to be imported from as far away as Minnesota during peak demand periods.

The study agreed with previous reports by the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the organization that monitors power supplies in the state, that reliability would be enhanced by reducing dependence upon external resources, with more new generation installed within the state and especially within New York City. New York City's population density, combined with significant transmission constraints that limit power imports from outside the city, requires that a minimum specified amount of generation be physically located in the city. NPCC's assessments concluded that these reliability requirements will be met.

Edward Schwerdt, executive director of NPCC, said that "NPCC's probabilistic analysis revealed that the combination of severe operating conditions on the region's electricity grid and extreme weather conditions could necessitate the use of special procedures and programs to maintain overall system reliability and prevent the possible disconnection of customer load."

Those procedures and programs include: emergency imports of electricity from neighboring grids, voltage reductions, reducing demand by invoking interruptible supply contracts with large customers, and appealing for public conservation.

Kenneth Klapp, spokesman for the NYISO, says that "we will probably be better off than last year, for a couple of reasons." First, he says the load forecast for this coming summer, at 30,475 megawatts is down from last year. That, Klapp explains, is because Orange and Rockland counties are now "under the auspices of the [Pennsylvania-New YorkMaryland] ISO," and we didn't lose any generating stations in that transfer.

Secondly, Klapp says that, "unfortunately, the economic situation in New York City [because of the Sept. I I attacks] is not as good as last year, and the load forecast is down from last year. On Long Island, users will have more than a 100 megawatt surplus - "not a lot above minimum, but better than last year." New York City last year, by contrast, was minus 300 to 400 megawatts. Since then, says Klapp, the New York Power Authority has built small generators in the city and, since the units came on line, the city has 400 megawatts surplus electricity physically located in New York City. And, adds Klapp, the Power Authority has brought a 44-megawatt unit on line on Long Island.

There is a potential of 340 to 350 megawatts additional generating capacity for Long Island, says Klapp, and "at least a portion of that will come on line" in time for this summer's demands.

For the rest of the state, there are generating stations in development in Scriba (Heritage Station) and the Athens station near Albany, but it will be "a couple of years" before they come on line.

Klapp concludes that the "general consensus is that we are a little bit better off than last year."

Gavin Donohue, executive director of the Independent Power Producers of New York, Inc., an advocacy group, agrees with Klapp, although he says that "it's very difficult to predict power usage. There are unforeseen circumstances, such as extremely hot weather, and the older units may be down. If we have one or two weeks of extremely hot weather, we may be in trouble."

Although Donohue says that the NPCC report "was well done," he points to its mention of getting power "from as far away as Minnesota." He comments, "The California problem came about because of an over-reliance on other states." He asks, what if Minnesota also has an extraordinary draw on its power supplies?

Donohue adds that, beyond 2002, "we have a problem. Longterm, if we're serious about keeping power prices down, there must be an effort by industry and others" to facilitate the building of "larger, dual-fired plants."

The state siting law, Article X, Donohue points out, expires this year. "It needs to be re-authorized so that generators and developers have a blueprint of the requirements for siting new plants. And the process needs to be streamlined." He explains, "If you want to put up a 1,000-MW plant, by the time you get an application filed, get certified, and negotiate with the local government, it's a five- to sevenyear process."

Donohue adds that "after Enron, the capital markets became difficult; they all but dried up."

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council is responsible for coordinating the reliability of the interconnected bulk power system in northeastern United States and eastern Canada through the establishment of operating and planning standards, coordination of reliability planning, and regular assessments of grid operating compliance with established standards.

NPCC annually performs a comprehensive assessment of electricity supply reliability for eastern Canada, New England, and the City and State of New York. The assessments require months of detailed preparation and are performed with the participation of regional electricity grid operators. NPCC's assessments are based upon the assumptions that existing and planned resources are available and typical weather is experienced during the upcoming summer season. The 2002 assessments also took into consideration restrictions on electricity production that may occur if the prevailing drought condition that exists throughout much of the Northeastern United States and eastern Canada continues this summer.